Mr. O’ Meara was wondering how similar our calculations were, and of course I was curious too!!! (Link to his calculations).
It is funny because we used essentially the same method, but completely different starting points, so it is interesting that our guesses were so similar in the end…
I trawled through James’ blog to find any mention of the number of edublogs and eventually found one on April 20th that said there were over 8,000 blogs now created. The competition post said there were 9,854 (and I rounded up 8,000 to 8,054 – just to make it easier!), so…
9854 – 8054 = 1800
And there were 26 days between April 20 and May 16, so:
1800/26 = 69.2 (rounded up to 70)
So i figured from that the required number of edublogs to reach 10,000 (146) would be created in just over two days, which would’ve been May 18th! I picked 9pm just because I tried to pick when would be the most likely time that the competition post was created at… But had no clues there really, so just guessed that it was maybe in the evening? And thought the 10,000th edublog might be almost exactly 48 hours after the post was created…
So that was my logic! It is interesting that my ‘daily rate’ of 70 was almost double Mr. O Meara’s (35)… Clearly mine is a bit overestimated as I was ten hours too early with my guess – in hindsight that was probably due to all the ’rounding up’ that I did!
I know what you’re thinking… ‘that girl has waaaaayyyyy too much time on her hands’… but unfortunately it’s not true!!!
So that’s all for now folks!
1 response so far ↓
1
Mark
// May 25, 2006 at 3:53 pm
It’s funny that we worked from such different averages. I wish I had thought to look for a datapoint closer to now to base my average on. I just used an overall average and made a guess at the correction required.
I don’t know about having too much time on your hands. My actual calculations took about three minutes. Typing up the explaination later took at least fifteen.